Presentations
The resources below depart from the peer-reviewed papers and reports that make up most of this site. They are presentation recordings and slides from conference and seminar talks, presenting a more immediate format that lets us share emerging ideas and summarise formal publications. The two presentations here address foundational themes: one examines what drives good pandemic outcomes, drawing on our Covid-19 preparedness research; the other connects systemic and polycrisis risk to cultural evolution, arguing that what we face is not just accumulating crises but a degradation of the adaptive mechanisms we need to respond to them.
NUCLEAR WAR · NUCLEAR WINTER
Presentation to the UN Scientific Panel on the Effects of Nuclear War
United Nations · Asia Pacific Consultation · October 2026
In May 2025, the World Health Assembly adopted resolution WHA78.28, asking the WHO to update its evidence on how nuclear war would affect health, health systems, food security and the environment. WHO’s last major assessments date from the 1980s and early 1990s, and since then science has advanced on nuclear winter, famine risk and the collapse of essential services. To deliver the update, which is due to the Assembly in 2029, WHO is establishing an Expert Working Group spanning radiation health, trauma care, infrastructure, food systems, mental health and disaster response. Our presentation to the expert panel found:
• Non-combatant islands like NZ may not be hit directly, but trade isolation could still cause destruction across food, energy, transport and digital systems
• NZ’s modelled harm exceeds NZ$1 trillion, more than twice annual GDP, and rose once experts discussed impacts across sectors
• Islands can feed themselves in a nuclear winter, but liquid fuel is the critical weakness, and no governance structures exist to manage the risk
• Four suggestions to the UN Panel: count non-combatant harm, commission end-to-end modelling, support natinoal and regional assessments, and resource mitigation
• Non-combatant islands like NZ may not be hit directly, but trade isolation could still cause destruction across food, energy, transport and digital systems
• NZ’s modelled harm exceeds NZ$1 trillion, more than twice annual GDP, and rose once experts discussed impacts across sectors
• Islands can feed themselves in a nuclear winter, but liquid fuel is the critical weakness, and no governance structures exist to manage the risk
• Four suggestions to the UN Panel: count non-combatant harm, commission end-to-end modelling, support natinoal and regional assessments, and resource mitigation
PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS
Five Lessons from Covid-19: What Really Drove Good Pandemic Outcomes
Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk · UK · September 2026
A five-minute tour of what 194 jurisdictions taught us about Covid-19. Preparedness, strategy, borders, democracy and equality all shaped who fared best, and the lessons apply to the next pandemic.
• Elimination strategies delivered near-zero excess mortality, and strict border control on islands came with no discernible economic penalty
• Higher preparedness saves lives: 10 more index points is about 2,700 fewer deaths in a country of 10 million
• Democracy and equality helped, protecting both health and the economy
• Elimination strategies delivered near-zero excess mortality, and strict border control on islands came with no discernible economic penalty
• Higher preparedness saves lives: 10 more index points is about 2,700 fewer deaths in a country of 10 million
• Democracy and equality helped, protecting both health and the economy
Systemic Risk · Cultural Evolution
The Meta-Crisis: When Adaptive Capacity Itself Breaks Down
Australia New Zealand Society for Risk Analysis · Christchurch · Jan 2026
Global risk mitigation resembles the parable of the blind monks and the elephant — each of six disciplines grasps a real part of the problem, but none sees the whole. This talk uniquely connects polycrisis dynamics to cultural evolution, arguing that we face not just accumulating risks but an erosion of the adaptive mechanisms needed to respond to them.
• Systemic risk and polycrisis concepts are moving from the margins to the centre of risk science
• Human biases and evolved social dynamics create locally successful but globally disastrous strategies — "trap states" that erode societal adaptability
• Evolvability — not prediction or stability — is the key structural property societies must preserve to navigate an uncertain future
• The meta-crisis: we are losing the capacity to evolve our way out of the polycrisis itself
• Systemic risk and polycrisis concepts are moving from the margins to the centre of risk science
• Human biases and evolved social dynamics create locally successful but globally disastrous strategies — "trap states" that erode societal adaptability
• Evolvability — not prediction or stability — is the key structural property societies must preserve to navigate an uncertain future
• The meta-crisis: we are losing the capacity to evolve our way out of the polycrisis itself
pandemic preparedness · methods
What actually Drives Good Pandemic Outcomes? Revisiting Covid-19
Research presentation · 37 min · moderately technical
Early Covid-19 analyses suggested pandemic preparedness didn't matter — even that higher-scoring countries fared worse. This talk shows why those conclusions were wrong: flawed mortality data, poor statistical methods, and a failure to separate islands from non-islands systematically distorted the picture. With better data and methods, preparedness clearly saves lives.
• The GHS Index does predict lower excess mortality — once underreporting, age structure, and appropriate transformations are applied
• Islands had a fundamentally different pandemic experience and must be analysed separately; geography and border strategy drove their outcomes
• Democracy mattered more in islands; lower inequality was the key structural factor in non-islands
• Island biosecurity advantages may generalise beyond pandemics to zoonotic and other infectious disease risks
• The GHS Index does predict lower excess mortality — once underreporting, age structure, and appropriate transformations are applied
• Islands had a fundamentally different pandemic experience and must be analysed separately; geography and border strategy drove their outcomes
• Democracy mattered more in islands; lower inequality was the key structural factor in non-islands
• Island biosecurity advantages may generalise beyond pandemics to zoonotic and other infectious disease risks